Summary in seconds: reminder of the Ukrainian war timeline and its phases, the first three phases were covered in my previous article, the current article details the last two phases of the war timeline, and what I will cover in my next article.
The course of the Ukrainian war
Most military analysts agree that the Ukrainian conflict timeline went through five phases, and in my previous article (The Ukrainian Hysteria: (Part Three) the War Timeline), I covered the first three phases of that time line: prelude (before February 24.2022), the all-out invasion (February 24 to April 7, 2022), and the southeastern front (April 8 to September 11, 2022).
The last two phases of this conflict will be covered in this article: Ukrainian counteroffensive (September 12 to November 9, 2022, and the second stalemate (November 10, 2022 to April 30, 2023).
The Ukrainian Counteroffensive (September 12 to November 9, 2022):
In this phase, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against Russian forces that had invaded their country. The time line for this phase is as follows:
September (Day 12 through 30)
On September 12, Ukraine claimed to have reached the Russia-Ukraine border on the northeastern front.
September 21 saw Vladimir Putin announcing a “partial mobilization” of 300,000 Russian troops to fight in Ukraine. In response, many Russian men and their families rushed to the borders of Georgia and Kazakhstan to escape conscription.
On September 30, Russia officially annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. The international community denounced the referendums and the Russian annexation of the four occupied regions of Ukraine. Putin declared these regions would be part of Russia “forever”.
October:
On October 8, an explosion targeting a fuel train damaged the bridge linking Russia and Crimea. This caused a partial collapse of the only road linking Russian mainland to the occupied Black Sea peninsula.
Two days later, Russia started an intense barrage of missile strikes against the energy grid and other civilian infrastructure in what military analysts called a “strategy of escalation intended to break Ukrainian national morale.”
November (Day 1 through 9, 2022)
Under an intense Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia pulled back its troops from the city of Kherson, on November 9. Kherson, which had a population of 250,000, had been one of the first cities to fall to Russian forces at the start of the war, making Moscow’s retreat a significant loss.
The Second Stalemate (November 10, 2022 to the present):
The timeline for this phase is as follows:
November (Day 10 through 30, 2022):
On November 15, Poland was put on high alert after two of its citizens were killed by a missile that landed in its territory. It turns out to be caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile, raising tensions between Russia and NATO countries.
November 24 witnessed a massive Russian shelling targeting Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure leaving millions of Ukrainians without power and heat.
December:
On December 5, the Russian military confirmed that Ukrainian drones targeted two of their bases deep inside Russian territory, exposing gaps in Russian defenses.
On December 21, President Zelenskyy left his country for the first time since the start of the war to visit the United States. During his visit, President Zelenskyy pressed the US Congress and the Biden administration for tanks, planes, and air defense capabilities to counter Russian relentless attacks. President Joe Biden promised to send Patriot missile systems to stave off Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
On Christmas Day, Putin claimed that Russia is “ready to negotiate” with Ukraine, an offer that was rejected by Ukrainian leaders.
2023:
January:
Just moments into the New Year, the Ukrainian Ground Forces launched a rocket strike on the city of Makiivka, causing significant casualties to Russian forces.
On January 12, Russia claimed the capture of Soledar, and Moscow declared the city of Bakhmut as its next prize in the Donbas region.
On January 14, Russia launched another wave of rockets targeting Ukraine’s energy facilities. One of these missiles hit an apartment building in the city of Dnipro, killing 45.
On January 25, the Biden administration announced it will supplying the Ukrainian military with its M1 Abrams battle tanks. Shortly afterwards, the German chancellor approved supplying Ukraine with its top-line Leopard 2 A6 tanks.
February:
On a historic show of support to the Ukrainian people, 15 European Commissioners met with their Ukrainian counterparts in Kyiv on February 3.
On February 9, the Institute for the Study of War mentioned that Russian forces are suffering their highest losses since the first week of the war (824 soldiers killed per day in February). The same source added that in June and July only around 172 Russian soldiers were killed per day. February 20 witnessed the surprise visit of President Joe Biden to Kyiv during which he expressed unwavering support for Ukrainian people.
On February 24, Zelenskyy marked the anniversary of a year blighted by “pain, sorrow, faith, and unity” striking a tone of grim defiance.
March:
On the second day of March, Russian authorities claimed that an attack had occurred on two of their villages, near Ukraine, in the Bryansk Oblast; Ukraine denied any involvement.
On March 4, Ukrainian forces began withdrawing from Bakhmut.
March 9 revealed Western officials estimates of high Russian casualties in the fighting around the city of Bakhmut.
During the second half of March, advanced weaponry started to trickle down into Ukrainian arsenal, indicating preparations for a counterattack
April:
On the first day of April, Russia assumed the Presidency of the UN Security Council, potentially affecting international discussions on Ukraine.
On April 6, China expressed non-recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and announced it would not provide Russia with weapons. Toward the end of the month, the President of Ukraine held his first phone call with Xi Jinping since the beginning of the Russian invasion of his country.
On April 29, Ukrainian Defense Minister mentioned that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was “largely ready” to proceed—subject to weather conditions and approval of commanders.
In my next article, I plan to identify the winners and losers of in the “Ukrainian Hysteria”, and draw lessons from this tragedy.
Sources
1. Timeline of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine: phase 3 Ukrainian Counteroffensive (September 12 to November 9, 2022). Wikipedia, last edited February 26, 2023 – 14:03 UTC
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine:_phase_3
2. Timeline of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine: phase 4: The Second Stalemate (November 10, 2022 to present). Wikipedia, last edited March 8, 2023 – 22:32 UTC
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine:_phase_4
3. Joshua Askew, Ukraine war: A month-by-month timeline of the conflict so far. Euronews, Updated: 02/03/2023 – 14:59
https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/30/ukraine-war-a-month-by-month-timeline-of-the-conflict-in-2022
4. John Fallain and Andra Timu, Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How its Unfolding. Bloomberg, February 17, 2023 – 12:00 AM EST
5. Associated Press, 1 year after the invasion began, a timeline of Russian war in Ukraine. WOSU-PBS, News Hour,February 19, 2023 – 10:25 AM EST
*This mid-April article is published today (March 18) to maintain the continuity of “The Ukrainian war timeline” which started with the previous article a couple of days earlier.